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The trend forecast of the Internet loan industry in 2018
Liu sitong, 2018-1-5 16:29
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In a twinkling of an eye, 2018 is really coming. Looking back on the past year, the online loan industry has been reformed. In the practice of the compliance road, I believe that every online loan platform and every Internet loan user have their own personal experience. Looking ahead to 2018, what changes will occur in the online loan industry? In what direction will it go? How will the overall pattern of the industry be adjusted?
In this paper, the author will be in line with the industry development situation with its small feeling will be for the entire 2018 net lending industry trend to make predictions, articles or contain personal views, guys don't like do not spray!
Trend 1: compliance filing is the main theme network loan peripheral business will rectification
If 2017 is net loan rectification, net credit platform in 2018 will further implement the compliance, network platform in addition to the China banking regulatory commission the response of the loan policy directives issued by the national regulatory authorities, the relevant local financial policy instruction have to actively implement, especially net loans for the record, will be a heavy compliance tasks in the first half of the net credit platform, and cannot meet the compliance requirements to complete the record platform will have a difficult in 2018.
As the net credit policy and implementation, around 2018 net platform loan business such as campus credit, cash loans will also changes, the author estimates the scale of business improvement will not be huge, but from the point of regulators consistent routines, relevant regulatory authorities will likely policy instructions first, and then within a certain time shall be ordered to platform. The regulatory layer is the norm rather than one quick fix to kill the platform's "food and eat parents" business.
Trend 2: Internet giants enter the market and the online lending pattern will be further adjusted
To be precise, the Internet giants have long been eyeing the financial sector, relying on their own traffic advantages, and many platforms have already started to operate the Internet finance business. In 2018, under the impact of the Internet giant, will further adjustment on net lending industry, the original head platform may be because of the participation of giants and fall, and the potential of the original humble little platform may also be made famous by giants channel support, among the line platform. , of course, these Internet giants itself to conduct financial business to the net lending industry is no small impact, maybe someone will think that the era of flow for the king has in the past, but in my opinion will continue to flow to the king's era, and will last for a long time in the future.
Trend 3: some platforms will seek opportunities for overseas development opportunities
Given the tension of the domestic Internet loan industry, many online loan platforms have begun to plan their overseas operations. Except for a few more developed countries such as Singapore, southeast Asia most of the imperfection of the periphery of financial services, and with the economic development, the financial service demand in these countries will be more and more obvious, the lending service of China increasingly mature network can completely embedded in the peripheral countries in southeast Asia, relative to the strictly net credit environment, peripheral countries in southeast Asia is relatively chaos of Internet financial system will bring more opportunities to network credit platform, and numerous limited in domestic business, such as cash loans will let domestic net credit platform in different ground again.
Trend 4: the head platform will still actively apply for listing, but the difficulty of listing will increase
In 2017 net lending industry's largest annual hot spots, net credit platform listed can definitely in the top three, a good financial strength of the platform has been successfully listed abroad, and some head platform, the move to submit application for IPO started coming, believe that in 2018 net credit platform on the market trend will continue for a period of time, but given the current listed network platform of the stock market, follow-up platform listed difficulty will increase, while the head platform can play overseas capital market is still in the air. Listed but anyway, the head will further increase the net credit platform between two levels of differentiation, the stronger the strong and the weak weaker and even quit, which industry events not only become more prominent in 2018, in the next few years will exist for a long time.
Trend 5: the profit of online loan platform is still worrying, some platforms may rely on cash to take risks
Despite the personage inside course of study to the net profit in 2018 loan situation very optimistic, think a lot of platform to become profitable in 2018, but in my opinion, if net credit platform standardization, in addition to a small number of head platform can profit scale advantage, most of net lending platforms profitability is still worrying. The number of online loan platforms will continue to decline in 2018. The unprofitable, insufficient capital and poor operating ability will widen the gap between online and loan platforms. Cash loans to fry this year was very hot, a lot of unprofitable platform rely on cash loan turnaround in 2017, but as the author says the cash loan is controversial, regulators concerned about cash loan for a long time, the future online cash loan business platform for days not very tough, but predictably, given a cash loan at present situation of and the nature of the financial industry who, in 2018 will still be many net credit risks platform, cut corners in cash loans business profit.
Trend 6: net loan to new exchange will not be able to fall, platform security guarantee mode will change
To just against this topic will also bring a lot of waves in 2017, although have head platform in the effort to attempt to this aspect, and network platform to just against the loan would bring positive significance to the whole industry, but the current situation, network platform to just against the loan is still not realistic things, not only the problem is difficult to implement in 2018, the author estimated the next few years are impossible to achieve, but the network security of credit platform will certainly change, similar to the original way of security risk or will gradually be eliminated, and the third party guarantees and insurance may bring new security support platform.
Trend 7: under regulatory pressure, the number of online loan platforms will be further reduced
According to authoritative media statistics, as of the end of December 2017, the number of platforms in which the online lending industry normally runs was 1931, with 517 fewer than at the end of December 2016. From the perspective of the current online lending industry, the number of online loan platforms will be further reduced by the end of 2018, and the number of platforms will be reduced by the number of platforms, which may be more than the number of platforms that are reduced in 2016. The regulation is more and more strict to the net loan, the investor picks the net loan platform also more and more careful. The online loan platform is likely to face more pressure in 2018 than in 2017, especially in the year 2018, when the compliance overhaul is implemented, and some small and medium-sized platforms can be quite difficult.
In my opinion, the original credit situation is big fish eat small fish, small fish eat shrimp, and the current net credit situation and the future for a long time of net lending things are the big fish eat small fish, small fish are starved to death.
Trend 8: net loan investor quantity and net loan investment total will innovate high
Although the number of online loan platforms continues to decline, the author is more and more optimistic about the overall network loan investment environment. When the more the platform of compliance, the more the platform has the strength, the probability is lower for each network loan investor, the possibility of investment profit increases. In the current financial investment circles, the net loan threshold of income, as well as the product is very obvious advantages such as flexible, predictable, in 2018, both net credit investors number or net loan total investment will be a record.
Although net lending over the past few years are often at the forefront of public opinion, but the more participation, the trend of the total did not change with the change of industry, on the contrary, when the net lending industry more and more specification, more and more orderly, net credit users on the reliability of the whole net lending industry will increase greatly.
Trend nine: the number of problem platforms will be further reduced, and the investment environment of the online loan industry will be healthier
It can be said that in the year of the supervision and rectification of the online lending platform in 2017, many bad platforms have already dropped out of the Internet loan arena under the great pressure of compliance, and the situation of the mixed fish is greatly reduced. 2018 net credit platform will continue to decline, but predictably platform run road, fraud problems will greatly reduce the number, of course, this is not the conscience, but in the network environment, loan bad platform cheats, the opportunity to run down, if net credit platform operating problems or other factors, the issues that led to the platform can't normal operation so benign exit is most of the platform exit path channel, net lending industry goes for the implement of the rectification and healthier.
Trend 10: the total return on net loan investment will fall further, but the decline will not be particularly large
Believe either investors or industry practitioners can have such a feeling - net credit investment comprehensive income is becoming more and more low, either 2015201 or 2017, comprehensive income drop is a big trend, and in 2018, believe that this trend will continue to continue. In 2017, according to authoritative media statistics, comprehensive net credit investment yield is 9.45%, compared with 2016 net lending industry comprehensive yields fell by 1%, thus can be expected, the general yield of net lending in 2018 to around 8.5% float, drop not particularly evident, but we can borrow exactly feel network comprehensive income not high before.
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